Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020. Polls will change between now and Election Day, and they can’t be expected to exactly match the final results. But if Harris won every state where she currently leads in our polling averages, she would reach the necessary 270 electoral votes. Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him. A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
Polling Information
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are the candidates for the upcoming 2024 election, here's some general information about them.
